Actuarial Analytics
Loss ratio trends, IBNR analysis, claims triangles, and reserve tracking
Current Loss Ratio
84.2%
Target: ≤85%
Total IBNR Reserve
$2.4M
Est. unreported claims
Reserve Adequacy
97.8%
Confidence interval 95%
Trend Factor
+6.2%
12-month trend
Loss Ratio Trend — 12 Months
Trend Factors
Medical Trend+7.1%
Pharmacy Trend+9.4%
ER Utilization+4.8%
Surgical+2.1%
Mental Health+11.2%
IBNR Analysis — Incurred But Not Reported
| Month | Claims Paid | Est. IBNR | Total Liability | IBNR % | Confidence Interval (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $6,120,000 | $980,000 | $7,100,000 | 13.8% | $850K – $1.11M |
| Mar 2026 | $7,340,000 | $640,000 | $7,980,000 | 8.0% | $560K – $720K |
| Feb 2026 | $7,890,000 | $380,000 | $8,270,000 | 4.6% | $320K – $440K |
| Jan 2026 | $8,150,000 | $210,000 | $8,360,000 | 2.5% | $180K – $240K |
| Dec 2025 | $8,420,000 | $95,000 | $8,515,000 | 1.1% | $80K – $110K |
| Nov 2025 | $7,680,000 | $45,000 | $7,725,000 | 0.6% | $35K – $55K |
Claims Development Triangle — Paid Claims by Month of Incurral
Months of Development →
| Incurral Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | Ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | $3.1M | $6.8M | $7.9M | $8.2M | $8.4M | $8.4M |
| Feb 2026 | $2.9M | $6.5M | $7.6M | $7.9M | est $8.1M | $8.1M* |
| Mar 2026 | $3.3M | $7.1M | $7.8M | est $8.1M | — | $8.4M* |
| Apr 2026 | $2.8M | est $6.2M | — | — | — | $7.9M* |
* Estimated ultimates using chain-ladder method. Italic values are projections.
Reserve Tracking
| Reserve Type | Booked Reserve | Model Estimate | Difference | Adequacy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBNR Claims | $2,350,000 | $2,290,000 | +$60,000 | 102.6% |
| Claim Adjustment Expense | $180,000 | $175,000 | +$5,000 | 102.9% |
| Unearned Premium | $5,200,000 | $5,200,000 | $0 | 100.0% |
| Catastrophe Reserve | $500,000 | $520,000 | -$20,000 | 96.2% |